I’m currently benched right now because of the online poker crap, which really sucks since there were going to be so many great events to play from home, and I didn’t really feel like traveling to the series.
To keep myself sharp I was going over some hands today, and also working with a student. I came across this hand, which I thought could be educational.
Full Tilt Poker Game #29805379499: $75,000 Guarantee (227887854), Table 31 – 1000/2000 Ante 250 – No Limit Hold’em – 00:46:06 ET – 2011/04/11
Seat 3: holdplz (99,221)
Seat 4: TheAssassinato (88,770)
Seat 5: viirusss (53,455)
Seat 6: aks47 (56,668)
Seat 7: cristinalindley (99,754)
Seat 8: HalcyonDays (39,972)
Seat 9: RenRad 01 (130,402)
holdplz antes 250
TheAssassinato antes 250
viirusss antes 250
aks47 antes 250
cristinalindley antes 250
HalcyonDays antes 250
RenRad 01 antes 250
viirusss posts the small blind of 1,000
aks47 posts the big blind of 2,000
The button is in seat #4
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to TheAssassinato 
cristinalindley folds
HalcyonDays folds
RenRad 01 raises to 4,625
holdplz has 15 seconds left to act
holdplz raises to 12,345
TheAssassinato has 15 seconds left to act
TheAssassinato has requested TIME
TheAssassinato raises to 26,400
viirusss folds
aks47 folds
RenRad 01 folds
holdplz has 15 seconds left to act
holdplz folds
Uncalled bet of 14,055 returned to TheAssassinato
TheAssassinato mucks
TheAssassinato wins the pot (34,065)
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 34,065 | Rake 0
Seat 3: holdplz folded before the Flop
Seat 4: TheAssassinato (button) collected (34,065), mucked
Seat 5: viirusss (small blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 6: aks47 (big blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 7: cristinalindley folded before the Flop
Seat 8: HalcyonDays folded before the Flop
Seat 9: RenRad 01 folded before the Flop
HAHAHAHA LOOK AT ME I PWN SOULZ! YEAH!
No, for real, I didn’t post this to toot my own horn. This is just a really good spot, and I think its a good example of what to look for when you try to pull off this high-variance, high reward move.
Let’s look at some elements that made this a solid 4bet spot.
Position: We are on the button, so if anyone chooses to flat us they will be playing out of position for the rest of the hand. This will deter action hopefully, and raise our opponent’s fold percentage.
Renrad’s Range Facing A 3bet: Renrad is an aggressive tournament player who goes for the win, so understandably he’s opening wide here. According to my statistics over 300+ hands he is opening 21% of hands from MP. I believe his actual raising range here to be higher given his chip stack and how he was playing in this tournament.
Over 14 trials he has folded to a 3bet 50% of the time and flatted 29% of the time. This isn’t overly aggressive. My sample size mainly consists of midfield tournament play. He was playing a little more aggressive on this day, so it’s possible he’s 4betting more. However, he is also opening more hands, so its possible this increased 4bet range is offset by a wider raise/fold range.
Holdplz’s 3bet:
Makes a lot of sense here to do without much of a hand. The stacks are great for it. It’s difficult to 4bet/fold or just shove over Holdplz’s 3bet because he is effectively playing a 50 BB stack. A 50 BB shove is huge, but flatting OOP will not yield a ton in implied odds.
Table Flow:
I felt strongly when this hand was played that Holdplz had been waiting for a spot to 3bet Renrad. Renrad had been opening even more than his already aggressive numbers suggested. The speed of the 3bet didn’t feel strong to me. I don’t know if that’s bullshit but sometimes I feel like you can get a feel for those things. It was a great spot for Holdplz to take, and he’s a very aggressive/talented tournament player, so I know he is going to take it often.
My Hand:
I do like it because if anyone does decide to hood flat us we have a hand that’s going to hit several flops.
How Often Does My Play Need To Work? How Often Will It Work?:
I am risking $26,400. $48,120 will come back into my stack every time my play succeeds. $26,400 will be lost when I am incorrect.
26,400/48,120 = 0.548 so my play, without cards, needs to work 54.8% of the time to be profitable.
I think Holdplz is 3betting a wide range here, and not 5betting a considerable amount of it. I am risking 26.4k to win the 21.7k out there, but to defend against my 4bet Holdplz will be forced to use his entire 80k stack. Mathematically it is not really feasible for him to 4bet/fold. Renrad will have to risk the same amount and still has to worry about Holdplz’s 3bet range should he decide to defend against my play.
Considering all of these things I think it’s more likely my play will work 60-70% of the time here, and is therefore profitable.
Hit me up at assassinatocoaching@gmail.com to book a private lesson.